UPDATED: GLASSNODE SAID THE COINS WERE MOVING INTO CUSTODY — 50,500 OF THEM SINCE JUNE — TODAY THE PRICE IS UP 5% AND RUNNING AT THE LEVEL THAT STOPPED IT IN AUGUST
Glassnode published the setup a week ago, and today the market is testing it. Since late June, wallets holding one thousand to ten thousand bitcoin have sent 50,500 coins away. The vaults built to hold more than one hundred thousand coins each took in 59,100 over the same stretch. In the single week Glassnode wrote about, those vaults picked up 31,500 coins — almost exactly the size of that week's spot ETF buying. Coins left hands that could move them freely and went into hands that answer to a compliance department.
Now the test. On August 28 bitcoin reached about $81,480 and turned around. Today it ran to $81,380 — about a hundred dollars short of that same high — and has eased back to near $80,807, up roughly 4.5 percent on the day. It got there and it did not get through. The squeeze story says thin available supply makes a level like that easier to clear. The session is still open.
Here is the part that holds either way. If it clears, the coins that got locked away to help it clear are locked in somebody else's vault. Whoever rides this breakout is mostly holding a claim on a coin, not a coin. The 21 million cap never moved. Who is allowed to move a coin without asking did. A custody vault has an address. Your own keys don't.
The liquidation tape now says who paid for it. Coinglass counted about $415 million of short positions wiped out across the day, and inside one four-hour window $164 million of that was shorts against $7.3 million of longs. Twenty-two to one. More than 119,000 traders were closed out. The other half of the move is a rate bet: CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell to 50.4 percent from 63.2 percent the day before, after Governor Waller said he could be inclined to hold. Coins going into custody did not squeeze this market on their own. Leverage on the wrong side did most of the work. Maximalist.
Now the test. On August 28 bitcoin reached about $81,480 and turned around. Today it ran to $81,380 — about a hundred dollars short of that same high — and has eased back to near $80,807, up roughly 4.5 percent on the day. It got there and it did not get through. The squeeze story says thin available supply makes a level like that easier to clear. The session is still open.
Here is the part that holds either way. If it clears, the coins that got locked away to help it clear are locked in somebody else's vault. Whoever rides this breakout is mostly holding a claim on a coin, not a coin. The 21 million cap never moved. Who is allowed to move a coin without asking did. A custody vault has an address. Your own keys don't.
The liquidation tape now says who paid for it. Coinglass counted about $415 million of short positions wiped out across the day, and inside one four-hour window $164 million of that was shorts against $7.3 million of longs. Twenty-two to one. More than 119,000 traders were closed out. The other half of the move is a rate bet: CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell to 50.4 percent from 63.2 percent the day before, after Governor Waller said he could be inclined to hold. Coins going into custody did not squeeze this market on their own. Leverage on the wrong side did most of the work. Maximalist.
GLASSNODE — THE WEEK ONCHAIN, WEEK 34 (PRIMARY) · published Wed Aug 26 · + BITCOIN.COM · Thu Sep 3 · UPDATED 1:55 PM ET: + COINGLASS via BITCOIN.COM · + DECRYPT · + CME FEDWATCH