THE GRID FAILS ITS OWN STANDARD FOR FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS

The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission commissioned a study from Synapse Energy Economics and released it on September 14. On current load forecasts, the PJM grid fails to meet PJM’s own reliability planning standard from 2027 through 2030.

That standard is one loss-of-load event every ten years. In the most likely 2030 case the study puts the risk at nearly six times that. In the severe case it is more than thirteen loss-of-load events a year.

The arithmetic on the severe case is the part to sit with. New data center demand across PJM in 2029 and 2030 alone would exceed Pennsylvania’s entire current annual electricity demand.

PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads, and that data center growth cannot come at the expense of families and businesses already depending on reliable and affordable service.

This matters on this beat for a reason that has nothing to do with data centers. Bitcoin mining is the only large industrial load that can be switched off in seconds and paid for switching off. That is not a talking point, it is how interruptible load contracts work, and it is the exact capability a grid with a thirteen-day-a-year problem is short of.

Which is the awkward part. The same week this study lands, listed miners are selling their power to AI, which is the load that cannot be interrupted at all. The thing leaving the grid is the flexible megawatt. The thing replacing it is the one that has to run.