OIL BLEW PAST $99 ON STRIKES INSIDE SAUDI ARABIA AND A RATE HIKE IS BACK ON THE TABLE — GOLD ROLLED OVER, STOCKS SOLD OFF, AND BITCOIN HELD
The oil shock hit gold, stocks and bonds. It did not do much to bitcoin.
Yemen’s Houthis put drones and missiles into Saudi oil sites on Tuesday — Abha, Najran, Jazan, Khamis Mushait — and Saudi Arabia said it shut some facilities down. The Jazan refinery alone runs 400,000 barrels a day. Brent crude ran toward $100, past $99 on the November contract, its highest since May. Iran added a threat to wall off part of the Gulf.
Higher oil means higher prices, and higher prices give the Federal Reserve a reason not to cut. The market now puts real odds on a rate hike, with the August inflation number due later this week and the Fed meeting the week after. Bonds fell; the German ten-year hit a level not seen since 2011. Japan’s central bank is expected to raise next week, and the yen jumped to a seven-month high after the strongest wage data since 1997. Copper hit a record. Gold, which had been sliding for a week, dropped back toward $4,400.
Here is the part worth marking. On a day built for running from risk — oil up, stocks down, gold down, bonds down — bitcoin barely moved. It sat near $79,000, about where it opened. That is not a moonshot, and we are not calling one. It is something quieter: an asset that needed no one’s permission and did not flinch when the oil map caught fire.
Cheap energy is somebody else’s promise, and it can be broken by a drone. Twenty-one million is a rule, and it cannot. That is the whole difference the day was trying to teach.
At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $78,846 (Crypto.com, 11:55 AM ET, Sep 8).
Higher oil means higher prices, and higher prices give the Federal Reserve a reason not to cut. The market now puts real odds on a rate hike, with the August inflation number due later this week and the Fed meeting the week after. Bonds fell; the German ten-year hit a level not seen since 2011. Japan’s central bank is expected to raise next week, and the yen jumped to a seven-month high after the strongest wage data since 1997. Copper hit a record. Gold, which had been sliding for a week, dropped back toward $4,400.
Here is the part worth marking. On a day built for running from risk — oil up, stocks down, gold down, bonds down — bitcoin barely moved. It sat near $79,000, about where it opened. That is not a moonshot, and we are not calling one. It is something quieter: an asset that needed no one’s permission and did not flinch when the oil map caught fire.
Cheap energy is somebody else’s promise, and it can be broken by a drone. Twenty-one million is a rule, and it cannot. That is the whole difference the day was trying to teach.
At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $78,846 (Crypto.com, 11:55 AM ET, Sep 8).
KEY RECEIPTS
Houthi drone and missile strikes on Saudi sites Tue Sep 8 (Abha, Najran, Jazan, Khamis Mushait); at least 73 wounded; Saudi Energy Ministry said several facilities and utilities were hit and some operations suspended. Jazan refinery capacity ~400,000 b/d. (CNBC, Reuters, Saudi Energy Ministry; OilPrice, Sep 8.)
Brent crude toward $100 — November contract +2.23% to $99.16 (CNBC); front-month about $97.7–98.7 intraday (OilPrice live). WTI about $93–94. Highest Brent since May.
Iran (Mohsen Rezaei, per Reuters): threatened a Gulf “maritime exclusion zone” and said it fired a new missile at U.S. warships.
Rates backdrop: U.S. August inflation print due later this week (outlets split Thu/Fri); FOMC Sep 15–16; bond market pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike. German 10-year at a post-2011 high. ECB expected to hike Thursday.
Japan: BoJ expected to raise next week; yen at a seven-month high after real wages rose 2.4% and cash earnings 4.7% (largest since 1997). Copper hit a record.
Gold slipped back below $4,400 as oil rose. Bitcoin held near $79,000 (Crypto.com). Related on the board: our Aug 31 read on bitcoin holding through the last Iran-strike scare.
Not claimed: a lasting decoupling, or a bitcoin price call. One session, marked as one.
Brent crude toward $100 — November contract +2.23% to $99.16 (CNBC); front-month about $97.7–98.7 intraday (OilPrice live). WTI about $93–94. Highest Brent since May.
Iran (Mohsen Rezaei, per Reuters): threatened a Gulf “maritime exclusion zone” and said it fired a new missile at U.S. warships.
Rates backdrop: U.S. August inflation print due later this week (outlets split Thu/Fri); FOMC Sep 15–16; bond market pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike. German 10-year at a post-2011 high. ECB expected to hike Thursday.
Japan: BoJ expected to raise next week; yen at a seven-month high after real wages rose 2.4% and cash earnings 4.7% (largest since 1997). Copper hit a record.
Gold slipped back below $4,400 as oil rose. Bitcoin held near $79,000 (Crypto.com). Related on the board: our Aug 31 read on bitcoin holding through the last Iran-strike scare.
Not claimed: a lasting decoupling, or a bitcoin price call. One session, marked as one.
OIL UP. STOCKS DOWN. GOLD DOWN. BITCOIN HELD.
CNBC + Reuters + Saudi Energy Ministry · Tue Sep 8 · + OilPrice