K33 SAYS STRATEGY’S PREFERREDS LEFT IT 4,947 BITCOIN AHEAD OF A NO-PREFERRED PATH — THE EXTRA $725 MILLION A YEAR IN DIVIDENDS ERASES THAT IN ABOUT SEVEN MONTHS — THE CASH RESERVE COVERS ABOUT 42 MONTHS

K33 Research ran the counterfactual on Strategy’s preferred stock. Head of research Vetle Lunde took out the roughly $7.5 billion Strategy raised through STRC in the first half of 2026, sent the $4 billion dollar reserve and $1.6 billion of STRC buybacks into bitcoin instead, and left MSTR share sales alone. His version of Strategy holds 843,303 bitcoin as of October 12. The real one holds 848,250, so the preferreds are ahead by 4,947.

The bill is what changes the math. K33 puts Strategy’s annual preferred dividends at $1.56 billion, up from about $830 million earlier this year, and pins $725 million of that increase on STRC. At $83,000 a bitcoin that’s roughly 8,740 coins a year (our math gets 8,735), which wipes out the 4,947-coin lead in about seven months. “Was the pref model a mistake? We believe the answer to that question is yes,” Lunde wrote.

There’s a cushion, and K33 counts it. The dollar reserve can pay about 42 months of dividends, so nobody has to sell bitcoin to make the payments. CEBE Tracker’s numbers agree: $5.52 billion in cash against $1.56 billion a year is about 42.5 months. K33’s complaint is the spread. The reserve earns about 4% while STRC costs 12%.

So the question for a Strategy holder isn’t whether the preferreds bought bitcoin. They did. It’s whether common stock would have bought it cheaper, which is K33’s bet, and that gets settled by what MSTR trades at the next time Strategy needs to sell it. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $81,751.