TD COWEN SAYS STRATEGY’S DILUTION TEMPERS THE PER-SHARE GAIN — THAT IS CEBE WITHOUT THE NAME — $15 BILLION OF NET CLAIMS SIT AHEAD OF THE COMMON

On October 8, 2026, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete kept a Buy rating and a $260 price target on Strategy, The Block reports. Their note: “Capital structure expansion and associated dilution temper the per-share benefit.” Per The Block, once debt and preferred claims are counted, bitcoin per share is “less robust.”

That is CEBE, the measure Bobby Tierney built at cebetracker.io, without the name. Strategy holds 848,000 BTC against 421,993,766 basic shares, per the feed’s read of the October 5 8-K. That is 200,951 sats a share. Ahead of the common sit $6.75 billion of debt and $13.96 billion of preferred, less $5.71 billion of cash: $15.0 billion of net claims. At $81,718 bitcoin (CoinGecko, 4:26 PM ET, October 8), those claims take 21.64% of the coin. What is left for the common: 157,458 sats a share.

The claims are fixed in dollars, so their bite moves with the price. At $86,490 on October 4 they took 20.45%. At TD Cowen’s $109,000 year-end number they would take about 16.2%. At its $280,000 for 2029, about 6.3%, if nothing new is issued. Every new preferred share pushes the other way.

The $260 target sits about 72% above the $151.47 close. The common holder is not betting that bitcoin rises. He is betting it rises faster than the claims stacked ahead of him. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $81,750.