BIP-110 MANDATE OPENS AT 2.59% — 207 BLOCKS TO A FORK CLOCK NOBODY ORDERED

The Fundamentalist read. BIP-110's mandatory signaling window opens with the network at chain tip 961,425 and public miner signal sitting at 2.59% — 47 of the past 1,818 blocks, driven almost entirely by Ocean pool. The proposal needs 55% for the ordinary lock-in path. That path was closed weeks ago. What remains is the user-activated soft fork mechanism: BIP-110-running nodes will begin rejecting non-signaling blocks at height 961,632, projected around 207 blocks from now — sometime Aug 9.

The refusal is the answer. Consensus that requires 55% of hashrate cannot be manufactured through a mandatory window against 97% of hashrate that refuses to signal. This is what protocol conservatism looks like when it's being tested. Adam Back and Michael Saylor both on record opposing. Bitcoin-only exchanges preparing to pause deposits around the activation window as precaution — because chain-split risk is what happens when a minority coalition enforces rejection against a supermajority chain.

The four-character cross-cut. Fundamentalist: the high threshold for consensus change is the feature. It's holding. Technologist: whether the enforcement mechanism itself induces split risk at the window opening is the second-order question worth watching. Maximalist: skepticism by default when the protocol is asked to change. Back and Lopp voicing the doctrine. Capitalist: clean failure is bullish for the wrapper-class predictability narrative; messy failure is bearish for 72 hours and then settles.

Watch, in order over the weekend: (1) does the 2.59% signal climb or stay flat as major pools face the mandate; (2) any pool operator statements approaching block 961,632; (3) Ocean pool's enforcement behavior at the window; (4) BTC price reaction (should be minimal if the mechanism works as designed). The clock hits Sunday. The signal does not need to.