BITCOIN IS DOWN 32% A YEAR AFTER ITS $126,000 TOP — THE LAST THREE CYCLES WERE DOWN 70% TO 82%

Bitcoin set its record of $126,000 on October 6, 2025. A year later, CoinDesk had it at $85,453, down 32%. In the three cycles before this one, the coin was down 69.7%, 82.3% and 74.6% one year after each peak, by CoinDesk’s count.

The difference is who owns it. This cycle’s buyers came through ETFs, asset managers, family offices and company treasuries, not retail on margin. The leverage cleared early: about $19 billion in liquidations on October 10, 2025, four days after the top. CoinDesk puts annualized volatility near 40% now, against more than 80% in old cycles.

Bigger, slower owners cut both ways. The ETF bid is not a one-way door. On Monday, October 5, Farside shows U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs out $89.8 million: IBIT took in $69.9 million while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $74.5 million and Ark’s ARKB lost $85.2 million. A softer drawdown means the holders are larger. It does not mean they cannot sell.

Who pays for a shallower cycle: anyone who sized a position off the old map and waited for 75% off. The new owners have not handed it to them. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $86,059.