BITCOIN IS PRESSING $84,300, THE TOP OF ITS BOX SINCE OCT. 7 — A DAILY CLOSE ABOVE IT OPENS $87,400

On October 21, bitcoin traded above $84,300. That's the line that turned it back four days running, October 11 through 14, with highs between $84,062 and $84,262. Every daily close since October 7 has landed between $81,378 and $83,678. It hasn't closed a day above $84,300 since October 6.

A trade above a line isn't a close above it. The test is where the day ends. A daily close over $84,300 opens $87,400, where bitcoin has topped out three times since September 21 ($87,397 that day, $87,283 on September 23 and $87,249 on October 2). It hasn't closed above $87,400 since January 28.

If the break fails, the floor is $79,700. The October 15 low was $79,676, and bitcoin hasn't closed under $80,000 since September 17. Below that sits $75,000. The September 15 low was $74,888, and Strategy's average cost is $75,446 a coin on 848,517 bitcoin, per its October 19 filing. That's where the biggest corporate holder breaks even.

These levels come from where the price has already turned. They aren't a forecast. Watch the close, not the spikes. Nobody here is telling you what to buy. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $84,647.