EVERY BITCOIN CYCLE LOW CAME 13 TO 71 DAYS AFTER A MIDTERM — THIS YEAR’S LOWEST CLOSE CAME 126 DAYS BEFORE — THE PATTERN HAS UNTIL JAN. 13

Bitcoin’s last three cycle lows all came after a U.S. midterm election. The 2014 vote was November 4, and bitcoin’s lowest close came 71 days later, on January 14, 2015. In 2018 it came 38 days after the November 6 vote, on December 14. In 2022 it came 13 days after the November 8 vote, on November 21. All three midterm years ended down. FTX stopped withdrawals on election day in 2022. This year, Binance was hacked on October 29, five days before the November 3 vote.

So far, 2026 breaks the pattern. The cycle’s lowest close, $58,523.93 on Alpha Vantage, came on June 30, 2026, 126 days before the vote. For the old pattern to hold, bitcoin needs a lower close in the same 13-to-71-day window: between November 16, 2026 and January 13, 2027. That’s a close under $58,524, about 24% below the $76,778 Alpha Vantage showed at 9:48 AM ET on October 30.

Here’s why it may be nothing. Three cycles is a tiny sample. Each of those lows also landed 777 to 924 days after a bitcoin halving, and this year’s June low, 801 days after the April 2024 halving, fits that window too. Halvings have come earlier on the calendar each cycle, so the gap between vote and low shrank from 71 days to 38 to 13, and now it has flipped. The election calendar and the halving clock run on the same four-year beat, and three data points can’t pull them apart.

So here’s the test, with a date on it. A daily close under $58,524 by January 13, 2027 keeps the midterm pattern alive. No close that low, and the pattern breaks for the first time and June 30 was the bottom. Anyone can check it against the daily closes. We’ll come back on January 13. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $77,411.