THE U.S. HIT AN IRANIAN ISLAND IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ — OIL JUMPED, STOCKS FELL, GOLD FELL TOO — BITCOIN DIDN’T MOVE

The U.S. struck an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight and Iran hit back. The strait has been disrupted for six months. Here is how the money reacted. Oil went up, which makes sense — it is the thing actually being shot at. WTI added 1.9% to $85.10, Brent 1.9% to $92.39. Nasdaq futures fell half a percent. Asian markets sold off. Then look at the two assets people call safe havens. Gold fell 0.8%, to $4,418 an ounce. Bitcoin sat at $77,580, flat since midnight. The metal with five thousand years of safe-haven marketing dropped on the day a shooting war reached the world’s most important oil chokepoint. The asset with none of that marketing did not move at all. Don’t read that as a victory lap. Flat is not a rally. Neither one caught a bid, because this was an oil event, not a money event, and the market priced it in the barrel where it belonged. What it does tell you is what bitcoin is not. It is not a war trade. It doesn’t spike when the missiles fly and it doesn’t fold either. The Fed is still the bigger story here: markets now price a 58% chance of a September hike, up from 57% the day before. Twenty-one million coins do not care who controls the strait.