THE FED MEASURED THE NEXT WAVE — 84% of owners can’t call a return, and they bought anyway

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland put a number on the next wave in a research paper titled “Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance.” Show households the past 12 months of returns and desired bitcoin allocation jumps 47%. Ask crypto owners to forecast a 12-month return and 84% answer “I don’t know” — against 68% for stocks, 74% for bonds, 78% for gold. Non-owners rate crypto riskiest at 63%; owners at 45%. The Fed’s own line: “The absence of common information and beliefs about crypto across investors suggests that price volatility will continue to be one of the most defining characteristics of this new asset.” The Maximalist read: the wave is real and it does not get it yet. Price brings them in; the protocol teaches them why to stay. It always runs in that order.