GRAYSCALE CALLS THE TURN — BITCOIN DOWN 50%, HALF THE USUAL 80% CYCLE DRAWDOWN, SHALLOWEST BEAR IN HISTORY
Bitcoin fell about 50% from its October 2025 peak. Every prior cycle fell about 80%. Grayscale says the tape may have turned.
Grayscale posted on X on Aug. 22. The chart indexes bitcoin at 100 at each cycle peak and tracks the drawdown by days since that peak. The current cycle from October 2025 sits at about a 50% decline. The four prior cycles — June 2011, December 2013, December 2017, November 2021 — all fell about 80% by this point. This is the shallowest cycle drawdown in bitcoin’s history.
“Historically, bitcoin has bottomed ~80% below its cycle peak price. In the latest bear market bitcoin fell ~50% from its peak, less than all prior cycles to this point.”
— Grayscale, Aug 22
— Grayscale, Aug 22
Grayscale closed the note with a call. “Markets were debating whether bitcoin would see another leg down in Q4 2026. While there are still risks, the rally this week may indicate we’ve reached a more durable bottom.”
Vaneck’s Aug. 18 Bitcoin Chaincheck ran the same read from the other side. Eight of twelve capitulation signals were active as of Aug. 12. All twelve entered their capitulation zones over the prior three months. Vaneck also expects a shallower trough this cycle. It cites spot ETFs, a bigger institutional holder base, and the absence of any major leveraged-lender failures.
The ETF tape backs the demand read. Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.92 billion over five sessions ending Aug. 21. Five consecutive green days. Total net assets $96.07 billion.
Shallower drawdown doesn’t prove the bottom holds. Vaneck’s own data shows these signal clusters historically produced below-baseline 90 and 180-day returns.
ONE THING TO KNOW
The Grayscale chart uses historical price data from Coin Metrics. Prior bitcoin corrections erased 78% to 94% from previous peaks. This cycle sits at 50%. That’s not a bottom call — it’s a structural observation. Market maturity is showing up in the depth of the drawdown, not just the recovery.
THE NUMBERS
1) Source: Bitcoin.com News / Kevin Helms, Aug 22 10:30 PM EDT.
2) Grayscale’s call: “This week may be a turning point for bitcoin.”
3) Current cycle drawdown: ~50% from October 2025 peak, through Aug. 20.
4) Prior cycles: June 2011, December 2013, December 2017, November 2021 — all bottomed about 80% below cycle peak.
5) Historical range: earlier bitcoin corrections erased 78% to 94% from previous peaks.
6) Vaneck capitulation signals: 8 of 12 active as of Aug. 12. All 12 entered capitulation zones in prior three months.
7) Vaneck trough call: shallower than prior cycles, citing spot ETFs, institutional holders, no major leveraged-lender failures.
8) ETF inflows: $1.92 billion over five sessions ending Aug. 21. Five consecutive green days.
9) ETF total net assets: $96.07 billion.
10) Bitcoin price Aug. 21: $79,500 — highest since May.
11) Caveat: Vaneck’s data shows comparable signal clusters historically produced below-baseline 90 and 180-day returns. One-year performance beat typical, but on a small overlapping sample.
2) Grayscale’s call: “This week may be a turning point for bitcoin.”
3) Current cycle drawdown: ~50% from October 2025 peak, through Aug. 20.
4) Prior cycles: June 2011, December 2013, December 2017, November 2021 — all bottomed about 80% below cycle peak.
5) Historical range: earlier bitcoin corrections erased 78% to 94% from previous peaks.
6) Vaneck capitulation signals: 8 of 12 active as of Aug. 12. All 12 entered capitulation zones in prior three months.
7) Vaneck trough call: shallower than prior cycles, citing spot ETFs, institutional holders, no major leveraged-lender failures.
8) ETF inflows: $1.92 billion over five sessions ending Aug. 21. Five consecutive green days.
9) ETF total net assets: $96.07 billion.
10) Bitcoin price Aug. 21: $79,500 — highest since May.
11) Caveat: Vaneck’s data shows comparable signal clusters historically produced below-baseline 90 and 180-day returns. One-year performance beat typical, but on a small overlapping sample.
Every prior cycle fell 80%.
This one fell 50%.
Grayscale calls a durable bottom.
The cap is still twenty-one million.
This one fell 50%.
Grayscale calls a durable bottom.
The cap is still twenty-one million.
Bitcoin.com · Kevin Helms · Grayscale X post Aug 22 · Vaneck Bitcoin Chaincheck Aug 18 · Coin Metrics historical price data · Sat Aug 22 2026