STRATEGY’S OWN GUIDE COUNTS 4,432 FOUR-YEAR BITCOIN WINDOWS SINCE 2010 — THE WORST ONE MADE 32.6%, THE MEDIAN 1,301.7% — SAYLOR SAID HOLD FOUR YEARS ON AUGUST 18 WITH BITCOIN SITTING ON THE 200-WEEK AVERAGE — THE TABLE IS THE RECEIPT

Michael Saylor posted Strategy’s 21-page Bitcoin Investor Guide on Saturday, revised September 7 with market data as of September 4. Page 12 is the one to read. It counts every completed four-year holding period in the daily price series since July 18, 2010: 4,432 of them. The median made 1,301.7%. The worst one, bought April 16, 2021 and sold April 16, 2025, made 32.6%. The guide’s own line over the table: “Time has historically reduced – not eliminated – outcome risk.”

The same table is honest about the shorter windows. One year: 5,528 observations, worst minus 83.6%. Two years: worst minus 68.3%. Three years: worst minus 34.7%. Four years is the first row where the worst case carries a plus sign. That is the whole table in one sentence.

Saylor said the four years out loud first. At Strategy’s shareholder Q&A on August 18 he said “don’t invest in Bitcoin unless you’re going to hold it for more than four years. Ideally, hold it for 10 years.” Bitcoin was $64,002 that day by Benzinga’s count, sitting on a 200-week moving average of $64,014. The guide’s dashboard has it at $79,809 on September 4, 23.3% above a 200-week average of $64,715. It is $77,126 at 3:08 PM ET Saturday.

Strategy wrote its own caveats and put them next to the table. “The next four years need not resemble any prior four-year period.” “Early exponential gains heavily influence medians and long-term annualized returns.” “A long horizon cannot rescue an oversized, leveraged or operationally insecure position.” Page 21 adds that the windows overlap and the early data is thin, so 4,432 is not 4,432 independent trials. There is no price target in the 21 pages. The same page says Strategy holds a material amount of bitcoin and has an economic interest in higher prices. Read the table with all of that in mind. It is still the table.

The guide gets one more thing right for us. Page 16, self-custody: “No custodian insolvency, freeze or rehypothecation risk.” Page 13, the custodian route: “Custodian controls keys.” The four-year window works on the coin you hold. It does not work on a balance someone else can freeze.

The number that carries the story is the start date. July 18, 2010. Sixteen years of daily prices, every four-year cut, and the worst outcome is a gain. That is the receipt for the August line. Hold four years is not a slogan anymore. It is a table with a source line under it.