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FundamentalistTHU AUG 27 · 9:05 AM ET · Japan Times / Bloomberg

TOKYO KEEPS THE HIKE DOOR OPEN — BOJ’S NUMBER TWO WON’T CALM SEPTEMBER BETS — THE WORLD’S CHEAPEST MONEY GETS ANOTHER WOBBLE

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stood in front of business leaders in Saitama and did the one thing markets were listening for: nothing to calm them. He said the bank should pay “greater attention to the upside risk to prices than in the past” — and offered no pushback against the growing bets on a September rate increase. The Fundamentalist read: Japan is not a sideshow, it is the basement of the global money system. Decades of near-zero rates made the yen the world’s cheapest borrowing, and that borrowed money leaks into everything — Treasuries, tech stocks, every carry trade on every desk. When Tokyo raises the price of that money, the leaks run backward, and positions everywhere get marked against a funding cost that no longer rounds to zero. It landed the same week American traders started pricing a Fed hike — two central banks leaning the same direction at once, which is exactly the kind of squeeze that makes the case for an asset that is nobody’s liability and pays nobody’s funding rate. The cheap-money era does not end with an announcement. It ends with two speeches like this in the same week, and most people reading neither.
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Japan Times / Bloomberg · Himino speech, Saitama · Thu Aug 27