GOLDMAN SAID ON AUGUST 17 IT WAS HARD TO SEE THE FED SHIFTING TOWARD HIKES — FRIDAY’S CPI PRINTED 0.4%, GASOLINE UP 3.9%, CORE UP 0.3% — NOW GOLDMAN EXPECTS 25 BASIS POINTS ON SEPTEMBER 16 — THE PRESIDENT’S LINE IS ‘LOWER THE RATE’

The document is the August Consumer Price Index, out Friday morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All items up 0.4 percent for the month after 0.1 percent in July. Up 3.4 percent over the year, the same as July. Gasoline up 3.9 percent in the month, which the release says was “over one third of the monthly all items increase.” Energy up 16.3 percent over the year, gasoline 27.4, fuel oil 52. Core, everything but food and energy, up 0.3 percent after 0.2, and 2.4 percent over the year, down from 2.5.

Now Goldman Sachs, twice. On August 17 the bank’s note said: “After two months of materially softer jobs and inflation data, it’s hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes.” And: “We still think market pricing for the funds rate is too hawkish.” Futures put a September hike near 30 percent that day.

Friday night, as quoted by Caixin, the bank’s note said: “We now expect the September FOMC meeting next week to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike (previously expected to hold steady).” Twenty-five days between the two sentences. One print between them. Futures were about 85 to 90 percent for a hike by Friday’s close, from 72 percent the day before and 50 percent a week earlier.

The Fed itself has held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent all year. Its July 29 statement passed 9 to 3, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan voting to raise. The statement’s reason for the hold reads like Friday’s print: “Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.” The committee meets September 15 and 16.

The other position is the President’s. September 4, on Truth Social: “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT.” Futures were at 60 percent for a hike that day. Nothing in Friday’s document moves toward him.

Be fair to Goldman. A forecast that changes on new data is doing its job, and the bank left the August note on the record instead of pretending it never wrote it. That is the whole point of keeping both sentences side by side: the reader can see what changed and what it took. What it took was one month of gasoline and a tenth of a point on core.

Bitcoin printed near $80,000 on the number Friday and is $77,093 at 3:47 PM ET Saturday. A hike is a claim on dollars, not on coins. The line that moved Goldman was energy, and energy is a line bitcoin’s issuance schedule does not read.