FED RATE HIKE ODDS CLIMB INTO FOMC WEEK — BITCOIN, ETH, MSTR ALL PRICING THE JULY 28-29 DECISION. WHAT ECONOMISTS EXPECT.

Fed funds futures show rising odds of a hawkish surprise from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The economists consensus splits: some see the Fed holding steady, others read the Brent-at-$100 and Treasury-yield backup as forcing another quarter-point hike. Bitcoin at $63-65K, MSTR at $91, and the broader equity tape are all pricing the meeting at a probability, not a certainty. The Fundamentalist read: FOMC week is the highest-signal event of the month. Powell's press conference decides whether the four-year cycle model that says October is the bottom gets accelerated or delayed. Rate cuts pull the market forward. Rate hikes push it back. A hold with hawkish language is the most likely outcome, and it's also the outcome the market has least completely priced. Watch the two-year yield reaction more than the Bitcoin price for the real signal.