THE MARKET STARTS PRICING A HIKE — BITCOIN COOLS UNDER $79,000 AFTER ITS FIRST $80,000 TOUCH SINCE MAY — WARSH GETS HIS FIRST JACKSON HOLE PODIUM FRIDAY

Bitcoin touched $80,000 for the first time since May, then eased back under $79,000 for the most honest of reasons: the rate market moved against it. Short-dated Treasuries fell overnight as traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve’s next move is a hike, not a cut — cutting directly against the falling-yield backdrop that lifted the price off $68,000 last week. The calendar does the rest of the talking: Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as chair on Friday, three weeks before the September 15-16 decision. Nvidia’s giant earnings beat lifted tech stocks regardless, and LMAX puts the confirmation level at the May high near $82,820 — a break there opens the road toward six figures. The caveat that matters comes from QCP: falling open interest says last week’s surge was heavy on short covering, with the ETF inflows supplying the genuine demand underneath. The Fundamentalist read: a hike scare is a test of the thesis, not a refutation of it. The debt does not shrink when the policy rate rises — the interest bill grows, and the argument for an asset nobody can print compounds with it. Friday’s podium sets the tone. The long cycle does not care who holds it.