THE GOLDEN CROSS IS COMING AND EVERY DESK WILL POST THE SAME CHART — THEIR OWN COUNT SAYS NINE OF THE LAST TWELVE GOT UNDONE INSIDE A YEAR — THE THREE THAT HELD AVERAGED 250%
A golden cross is one line crossing another. The average price of the last fifty days rises above the average price of the last two hundred. That is the whole event. It is arithmetic about the past, printed as a forecast.
Here is the part the chart posts leave out, taken from the same count everybody is about to cite. Twelve of these since 2012. Three survived a full year without the opposite signal undoing them. Nine did not. The signal filling your feed this week has held up one time in four.
Now the other side, because it is just as real. Those three averaged about 250 percent over the next twelve months. February 2012 ran 306 percent. May 2020 ran 312 percent. That is why nobody stops talking about it. The misses are boring and the hits change your life, so the hits are the only ones anyone remembers.
Both facts are true at once, and anybody putting money behind this has to hold them together. A one-in-four signal with that kind of payoff is not nothing. It is also not a reason by itself to do anything. Size it for the nine, not for the three. The chart does not know which one this is. Neither does the person posting it. Capitalist.
Here is the part the chart posts leave out, taken from the same count everybody is about to cite. Twelve of these since 2012. Three survived a full year without the opposite signal undoing them. Nine did not. The signal filling your feed this week has held up one time in four.
Now the other side, because it is just as real. Those three averaged about 250 percent over the next twelve months. February 2012 ran 306 percent. May 2020 ran 312 percent. That is why nobody stops talking about it. The misses are boring and the hits change your life, so the hits are the only ones anyone remembers.
Both facts are true at once, and anybody putting money behind this has to hold them together. A one-in-four signal with that kind of payoff is not nothing. It is also not a reason by itself to do anything. Size it for the nine, not for the three. The chart does not know which one this is. Neither does the person posting it. Capitalist.
COINDESK Sep 3, 07:01 UTC (3:01 AM ET) · 50-day crossing the 200-day · 12 golden crosses since 2012, average three-month gain 24.9% across the nine measurable ones, only 3 of 12 survived a year without a death cross, those three averaged ~250% over twelve months · Feb 2012 +306%, May 2020 +312% · the hit-rate read is ours, computed from CoinDesk's own count · no analyst is quoted in the piece · the article's separate USDT dominance death-cross claim carries no figures, so we do not print it