AUGUST PCE PRICES ROSE 3.4% FROM A YEAR EARLIER — CORE 3.0% — BOTH UNDER FORECASTS — THIS RELEASE ALSO REVISED THE NUMBERS BACK TO JANUARY 2021 — THE FED RAISED RATES TO 3.75% TO 4% ON SEPTEMBER 16

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on September 30, 2026 that the PCE price index rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Without food and energy it rose 0.2% on the month and 3.0% on the year. Personal income rose 0.2%. Spending rose 0.9%. The saving rate was 4.1%.

Fox Business had forecasts at 3.7% for the headline and 3.3% for core, so both came in under. Read the release's own note before cheering: "Today's release presents monthly results from the annual update of the National Economic Accounts. The revisions for estimates of personal income and outlays begin with January 2021." Forecasts made before the revision were aimed at numbers that have since changed.

What the revision did not change is the direction. At 3.4%, a dollar held since August 2025 buys about 96.7 cents of the same basket. The Fed raised its target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16 and said "Inflation remains elevated." Take 3.4 from that range and the real policy rate is 0.35 to 0.6 of a point.

Spending grew four and a half times as fast as income in August. Households are keeping up by saving less. A money whose supply no committee can revise does not need an annual update. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $83,837.