MEMPOL!TICS
← BACK TO THE BOARD
FundamentalistTue Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET · treasury

TREASURY’S OWN CURVE PUT THE 30-YEAR AT 5.56% ON SEPTEMBER 28 — EIGHTEEN DAYS AFTER ITS AUCTION CLEARED AT 5.308% — THE 10-YEAR WENT FROM 4.79% TO 5.24% IN SEPTEMBER

On September 10, 2026, the Treasury sold 30-year bonds and the buyers wanted 5.308%. On September 28, the Treasury's own daily yield curve put the 30-year at 5.56%. Eighteen days, about a quarter of a point.

The 10-year moved further. It started September at 4.79% and ended September 28 at 5.24%. Cointelegraph, citing TradingView, reported the 30-year touched 5.58%, which it called the highest since June 2002.

A higher yield means a lower price. Anyone who bought on September 10 now holds a bond the market values for less than they paid. Lenders asked for more to hold dollars for 30 years, then asked for more again less than three weeks later. Our read: that is the price of trusting what a dollar will buy in 2056.

The bond pays 5.56% a year in dollars and asks you to trust that promise until 2056. Bitcoin pays nothing and asks you to trust no one. Different risks. Know which one you hold. At the time of this writing, bitcoin was $83.020.

READ THE CURVE →
U.S. Treasury · TUE SEP 29 · 12:00 PM ET
FROM THE BOARD

THE TREASURY PAID 5.618% TO BORROW FOR 30 YEARS — THE HIGHEST 30-YEAR AUCTION YIELD SINCE AUGUST 2000 — THE SAME DAY, CBO PRICED WHAT HIGHER RATES DO TO THE DEBTOct 8, 2026

TREASURY SOLD $39 BILLION OF 10-YEARS AT 4.834% — AND DEALERS TOOK 4%Sep 9, 2026

THE TEN-YEAR TOUCHED 5% — A GOVERNMENT PROMISE GETS REWRITTEN AT THE HIGHER RATE — THE FED IS CHASING, NOT LEADINGSep 18, 2026

THE SAME BOND WENT OUT TWICE IN FOUR WEEKS — 5.216% ON AUGUST 13, 5.308% ON SEPTEMBER 10Sep 10, 2026

THE TREASURY SOLD $70 BILLION OF FIVE-YEAR NOTES AT 5.033 PERCENT — A 3.1 BASIS POINT TAIL, THE SECOND BIGGEST ON RECORD — AND THE DEALERS ATE WHAT NOBODY ELSE WANTEDSep 23, 2026